We all know that pitchers in the major leagues can be...unpredictable?? But, isn't that why we're here looking at these charts, graphs and diagrams? It's a kind of fun that some of us like to have. There's no better way to mellow out after a long work day than digging into some real deep pitching metrics. I for one would it all day if I could.
In this year's Baseball Forecaster, writer Brandon Kruse gives some insight to the metrics from last season that may predict a breakout pitcher in an upcoming season. Using Kruse's research (more or less) here's what I targeted:
So, just who are these pitchers?
Now, this is a pretty good looking list. One that I am most interested in is Marco Gonzales, now easily one of the top pitchers in the Mariners rotation and hopefully, absorbing everything thing he can from veteran Felix Hernandez. Fitting Kruse's model for a potential breakout pitcher, Gonzales has the stats that could make for a breakout season.
After undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2016, Gonzales was able to put together as close to a full MLB season as he could in 2018, pitching 167 innings and recording 13 wins. He showed improvement in all of the following stat categories between 2017 and 2018:
Beyond simply hoping his elbow surgery was a complete success that will set him up for durability moving forward, the only metric that I can find that has degraded slightly was his velocity in the 2018 season.
Image created on Fangraphs.com.
His velocity never went back up to the levels he was reaching in June. Oddly enough, a great article written by John Trupin for Lookout Landing discussed Gonzales' changing pitching mechanics in 2018's Spring Training, which lead to an increase in velocity. But, when we look at an updated version of a graph included in that article, we can see a slight drop off.
Image provided by Brooks Baseball.
When compared with his slightly changing G/L/F percentages in the first and second half of the 2018 season, there could be a small bit of concern.
However, we could simply look at this as a clear case of fatigue towards the end of his first full season back after surgery and a change in pitching mechanics. It is clear that Gonzales has a lot of upside going into the 2018 season. With the loss of Paxton and the many additions and transactions the Mariners have made this offseason, one would assume the organization has a lot of hope for Gonzales to increase his IP and begin to take over as the ace of the rotation. His metrics certainly show that he has the skills to do so.
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It wasn't long ago Machado and Schoop were turning beautiful double plays that became known in Baltimore like the Tinker to Evers to Chance plays in old time Chicago. Except, in this case, Machado to Schoop to...uh...Davis. Well, ok, that's for another time.
In 2017 Jonathan Schoop had an All-Star season. He hit 32 home runs and finished the season at .293/.338/.503. However, 2017, along with many of his teammates, was a bit lack luster. He still finished with 21 home runs, but a .233/.266/.416 slash line. Take a look at his power decline across the two seasons.
What happened? Iiiiinjurieessss!! Schoop found himself sidelined for 25 days with a right oblique strain. Here are a few other players who found themselves on the DL last season with the same injury.
Man, the Nationals had it rough. At only 27 years old, Schoop spent the least amount of time off the field because of this injury compared to some of his older colleagues. I'm looking at you Zimmerman. Schoop is really only 27? That may mean that his body healed a little faster, but it could also mean that anxiousness to return to form and help his tailspinning Orioles teammates brought him back onto the field a little too early. After finally having the breakout season players must dream of, he probably wanted to get back in the saddle as soon as possible. Not to mention the fact that everyone knew the Orioles were on the cusp of a major sell off. He had to of known other teams were looking and maybe that pressure got to him.
Let's compare Jonathan Schoop to fellow second baseman, Jason Kipnis. In 2014, Kipnis spent 26 days, one day longer than Schoop with same injury, on the DL. If we look at Kipnis on the flip side of the injury and focus on his power stats, we can see the gains he saw in the 2015 season after recovering from his oblique strain. Kipnis showed a steady increase in hard contact, power index and an expected power index.
If this increase does directly translate to health in the oblique, Schoop could very well find himself generating more and more pop this upcoming season. There are a few reasons to believe this could be true.
First, Schoop has maintained a consistent contact rate over the last 4 seasons:
Second, his batting eye has increased each season in the past four seasons except for the 2018 seasons where it dropped off. But, this could also be a result of less at bats. The 2018 season had Schoop down 149 less ABs than in 2017. Also remember that he was traded at the deadline to the Brewers, who used Schoop as a platoon, bench role.
Finally, health and consistency go a long way. Now that Schoop is in Minnesota and knows his role, he can settle in to an opportunity where good health should have him back to an everyday role at second base. One can only imagine that the 2018 season for an Oriole was less than steady in more ways than one. Here's to seeing more power from Schoop in 2018.
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