Once October goes by and the cold winds of November and December start to blow, the nearest memories us baseball types have to look back on are the games (all 7 if we were lucky) of the most recent World Series. It really should be something that is celebrated more. Too many analysts and writers seem to jump straight to new free agents and their top 5 most likely landing spots. Preseason predictions are made way too soon. Next year's probable top prospects are already being talked up. But, while I am appreciative for all of those writer's giving us great articles to read and help to get us through, I want to pump the brakes a bit and focus on the 2019 World Series. It was a doozy!
The story of Max Scherzer's arm injury just could not have been more dramatic. Here is a guy that everyone knows as a fierce competitor, tough as nails and one who eats playoff pressure for breakfast, and he can't even put on a t-shirt by himself the day he is to take the mound?
As fun as it was to watch Max pace around in the dugout on his nights off, fans need to see the ace on the mound. Miraculously, we were able to see the Nationals ace take the mound in game 7. Big shout out to cortisone shots! But, Max's Game 7 performance had everyone on their toes. Knowing there was injury, knowing there was fatigue, knowing the pressure was turned way up, how much do pitcher's change their approach between starts in high pressure games like these? Let's take a look at how Max Game 1 compared to Max Game 7. Let's see if there was any significant difference in how he approached the game.
Pitch Type
Here's the element of the game that made me think the most. How much are pitcher's playing chess in their mind when it comes to pitch selection? Did Scherzer prepare a diverse array of first pitches to keep batters on their toes? If he fell behind in the count, was he going, no question, straight fastball? What about when he was ahead?
Here's a significant change right from the start. Facing 23 batters in Game 1 and 26 batters in Game 7, Scherzer made his first pitch fairly unpredictable. Most likely to see a slider or a 4-seam fastball in Game 1, but certainly more unpredictable in Game 7.
How about when he's ahead? With a pitcher's count, Max relied on the fastball in game 1 and game 2. Get ready to see some heat when you're down in the count.
What about when Scherzer fell into trouble? Well, he didn't in Game 1. In Game 7 however, things were looking shaky 5 times. Ol' reliable helped him through these sticky situations.
Finally, making himself most unpredictable, batters didn't know what was coming in a full count in Game 1. Only facing a full count twice in Game 7, Scherzer through out a 50/50.
​Speed
Adrenaline, injury, pressure, fatigue, determination and perseverance. How do these things play into Scherzer's speed change between Game 1 and Game 7? Not much.
Game 1
Game 7
Performance Metrics
GSc - Bill James' Game Score Statistic
aLI - Average Leverage Index WPA - Win Probability Added Again, it looks like Scherzer was Scherzer. Nearly identical in swinging and looking strikes, Max delivered a total of 10 strikeouts between these two outings. By looking at his game score, average leverage index and winning probability we can see that Game 1 was a better performance.
It appears that the old cliche of "It's just another game..." and "My approach is the same..." rings true. With hurt arm and all, Scherzer came out and performed like an ace for one last time in 2019. He more than deserves to celebrate all offseason long. As the 2019 World Series Champion Nationals continue to do so, let's just remind ourselves that we don't have to constantly be on the cusp of breaking news and that going back and looking at the details of a great World Series can be just as satisfying as a free agent signing with a new team.
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