Small sample sizes can be fun to look at, even if they have no real statistical significance. The 2020 season was short for MLB players and even shorter for minor league prospects. Dean Kremer was one of those players. He started 4 games, got a win, got a loss, accumulated a 4.38 ERA and threw 346 pitches. What does that tell you about his performance? Nothing. So what should we look at? One fun thing is to see what a pitcher did when they were feeling good, ahead in the count. Here is a look at all of Dean Kremer's pitches when ahead in the count in 2020.
Kremer went ahead in the count 71 times (20.5%). For comparison, Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer was ahead in the count 29.2% of the time in 2020. Kremer threw a curveball in 30 of those count situations or 42%. 5 times did he strike out batters with that curveball and all 5 of them were swinging strikes. Here's a look:
5 times is nice, but that doesn't tell us anything. Good pitchers can get hitters to chase the curveball, no doubt. The question then, is just how weird does his curveball look to batters? Yes, it has to look weird. It has to look so weird that the hitter is still thinking about how weird it looked when the next pitch is coming at them. Statcast's pitch movement measurements can help us non-player keyboard pluckers better understand weirdness. According to pitch movement measurements on FanGraphs, Kremer's vertical movement was -10.6. Again, for comparison, Bauer's curveball vertical movement was -13.0, which was third on the list of all MLB pitchers who pitched as little as 10 innings in 2020. That's a pretty damn good curveball from a young pitcher. Here's how that curveball movement compared across the league in 2020:
We can see from this list (anytime a pitcher finds themself on a list with Kershaw is good in my opinion) that Kremer is in good company. Somewhat troubling though is Kremer's usage where he ranks 2nd behind only Tyler Glassnow. So what can we recommend when a pitcher has an excellent looking curveball? Throw it more, Lance McCuller's Jr. style? Or through it less? It could be more like through it less in 2 strike counts and finish them off with more of this....
Using the 4-Seam/Cutter/Sinker more often after a swing and miss on the curveball has proven to be effective in a small amount of time for Kremer. Set them up with the curveball then finish them off with the fastball. The pie chart below shows pitch types on 2 strike counts. Kremer is trying to put hitters away with that curveball, maybe a little too much. He has showcased some real impressive movement with the curve, leaving hitters dismayed. If he tries to finish them off with the hard stuff while they're still trying to shake off the confusion of the curve, 2021 could be a great year for Kremer.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorThis blog is dedicated to baseball analytics and general baseball discussion. Archives
January 2021
Categories |